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Oasis Petroleum Inc. (OAS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$63.90 - $91.99$77.60
Multi-Stage$109.03 - $119.43$114.13
Blended Fair Value$95.87
Current Price$109.30
Upside-12.29%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202120202019201820162015201420132012
DPS0.00%0.00%9.320.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.53%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)513.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)335.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)177.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)102.6564.1638.50
Cash Retained (M)177.60177.60177.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-102.65-64.16-38.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)74.95113.44139.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)56.8456.8456.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.322.002.45
LTM Dividend per Share5.915.915.91
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.322.002.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.227.908.35
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$63.90$77.60$91.99
Upside / Downside-41.54%-29.00%-15.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)513.27508.14503.06498.03493.05488.12502.76
Payout Ratio65.40%70.32%75.24%80.16%85.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)335.67357.32378.50399.22419.48439.30465.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)324.26327.57330.88
Year 2 PV (M)311.71318.10324.56
Year 3 PV (M)298.36307.59317.01
Year 4 PV (M)284.51296.30308.46
Year 5 PV (M)270.39284.47299.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,707.904,953.065,208.32
Equity Value (M)6,197.146,487.106,788.36
Shares Outstanding (M)56.8456.8456.84
Fair Value$109.03$114.13$119.43
Upside / Downside-0.25%4.42%9.27%

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