Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

NOBA Bank Group AB (NOBA.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$71.00 - $107.99$88.36
Multi-Stage$143.97 - $158.70$151.19
Blended Fair Value$119.77
Current Price$94.00
Upside27.42%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.400.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,028.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)203.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,825.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)605.60378.50227.10
Cash Retained (M)2,825.002,825.002,825.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-605.60-378.50-227.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,219.402,446.502,597.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)375.05375.05375.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.926.526.93
LTM Dividend per Share0.540.540.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.926.526.93
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.467.067.47
WACC / Discount Rate6.92%6.92%6.92%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$71.00$88.36$107.99
Upside / Downside-24.47%-6.00%14.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,028.002,997.722,967.742,938.072,908.682,879.602,965.99
Payout Ratio6.70%23.36%40.02%56.68%73.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)203.00700.371,187.761,665.342,133.252,591.642,743.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.92%6.92%6.92%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)648.45655.07661.68
Year 2 PV (M)1,018.201,039.081,060.18
Year 3 PV (M)1,321.771,362.651,404.36
Year 4 PV (M)1,567.641,632.611,699.58
Year 5 PV (M)1,763.311,855.131,950.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)47,675.8850,158.4752,743.42
Equity Value (M)53,995.2556,703.0159,519.96
Shares Outstanding (M)375.05375.05375.05
Fair Value$143.97$151.19$158.70
Upside / Downside53.16%60.84%68.83%

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