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PJSC Kurgan Generation Company (KGKC.ME)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$96.90 - $196.61$135.39
Multi-Stage$152.67 - $167.47$159.93
Blended Fair Value$147.66
Current Price$40.00
Upside269.14%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.73%0.00%2.032.001.062.632.652.462.972.330.530.41
YoY Growth--1.34%89.72%-59.92%-0.78%8.12%-17.44%27.49%338.82%30.67%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.61%3.60%3.16%5.63%5.21%4.72%5.83%5.43%1.04%0.81%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)697.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)493.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)203.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)139.5587.2252.33
Cash Retained (M)203.96203.96203.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-139.55-87.22-52.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)64.42116.75151.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)122.45122.45122.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.530.951.24
LTM Dividend per Share4.034.034.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.530.951.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.564.995.27
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate1.49%2.49%3.49%
Fair Value$96.90$135.39$196.61
Upside / Downside142.25%238.47%391.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)697.74715.09732.88751.10769.78788.93812.59
Payout Ratio70.77%74.61%78.46%82.31%86.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)493.78533.56575.02618.21663.20710.03751.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate1.49%2.49%3.49%
Year 1 PV (M)497.22502.12507.02
Year 2 PV (M)499.37509.25519.24
Year 3 PV (M)500.31515.25530.48
Year 4 PV (M)500.16520.17540.77
Year 5 PV (M)499.02524.09550.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,198.9217,012.8817,859.24
Equity Value (M)18,695.0019,583.7720,506.92
Shares Outstanding (M)122.45122.45122.45
Fair Value$152.67$159.93$167.47
Upside / Downside281.68%299.82%318.67%

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