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Kelsian Group Limited (CY4.F)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$39.71 - $82.32$77.14
Multi-Stage$12.92 - $14.12$13.51
Blended Fair Value$45.33
Current Price$3.73
Upside1,115.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS17.74%21.65%0.150.170.140.130.090.070.050.050.050.03
YoY Growth---13.23%26.89%6.32%39.13%38.92%23.12%0.12%7.42%79.09%32.34%
Dividend Yield--4.03%3.84%1.91%2.33%1.21%1.13%0.56%1.06%2.14%0.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)112.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)88.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)24.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.5014.068.44
Cash Retained (M)24.4524.4524.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.50-14.06-8.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.9510.3916.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)271.79271.79271.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.040.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.040.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.360.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.38%6.38%6.38%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$39.71$77.14$82.32
Upside / Downside964.71%1,968.21%2,106.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)112.50119.81127.60135.89144.73154.13158.76
Payout Ratio78.26%80.61%82.96%85.31%87.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)88.0596.58105.86115.93126.86138.72146.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.38%6.38%6.38%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)89.9490.7991.64
Year 2 PV (M)91.7993.5495.30
Year 3 PV (M)93.6196.3099.03
Year 4 PV (M)95.3999.06102.83
Year 5 PV (M)97.13101.82106.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,042.483,189.433,342.01
Equity Value (M)3,510.343,670.943,837.51
Shares Outstanding (M)271.79271.79271.79
Fair Value$12.92$13.51$14.12
Upside / Downside246.26%262.10%278.53%

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