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Columbia Banking System, Inc. (COLB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$51.95 - $138.68$79.59
Multi-Stage$37.09 - $40.43$38.73
Blended Fair Value$59.16
Current Price$25.74
Upside129.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.16%11.71%1.381.250.840.850.850.850.800.670.650.62
YoY Growth--11.09%48.27%-0.80%-0.67%-0.07%6.43%19.61%3.07%4.80%35.66%
Dividend Yield--5.55%6.60%3.92%2.62%1.98%3.18%2.37%1.60%1.67%2.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)478.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)301.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)177.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)95.6659.7935.87
Cash Retained (M)177.22177.22177.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-95.66-59.79-35.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)81.56117.44141.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)217.07217.07217.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.380.540.65
LTM Dividend per Share1.391.391.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.380.540.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.761.932.04
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$51.95$79.59$138.68
Upside / Downside101.82%209.20%438.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)478.30509.39542.50577.76615.32655.31674.97
Payout Ratio62.95%68.36%73.77%79.18%84.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)301.08348.21400.19457.47520.49589.78624.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)316.23319.22322.22
Year 2 PV (M)330.05336.34342.69
Year 3 PV (M)342.64352.47362.49
Year 4 PV (M)354.04367.65381.65
Year 5 PV (M)364.32381.91400.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,343.276,649.656,967.76
Equity Value (M)8,050.548,407.258,777.00
Shares Outstanding (M)217.07217.07217.07
Fair Value$37.09$38.73$40.43
Upside / Downside44.09%50.47%57.09%

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