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Fleury Michon S.A. (ALFLE.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$174.08 - $288.10$224.58
Multi-Stage$351.34 - $386.87$368.76
Blended Fair Value$296.67
Current Price$25.50
Upside1,063.41%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.97%1.08%1.321.231.221.020.831.261.161.151.221.22
YoY Growth--8.09%0.48%19.24%23.90%-34.59%9.19%0.36%-5.47%0.00%2.37%
Dividend Yield--4.82%6.16%6.66%4.37%2.99%3.99%2.99%2.46%1.89%1.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)62.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)51.91
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.467.794.67
Cash Retained (M)51.9151.9151.91
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.46-7.79-4.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)39.4444.1247.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4.094.094.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share9.6510.8011.56
LTM Dividend per Share2.552.552.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share9.6510.8011.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend12.2013.3514.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.29%6.29%6.29%
Growth Rate-0.67%0.33%1.33%
Fair Value$174.08$224.58$288.10
Upside / Downside582.69%780.71%1,029.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)62.3262.5362.7462.9463.1563.3665.26
Payout Ratio16.71%31.37%46.03%60.69%75.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.4219.6228.8838.2047.5857.0260.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.29%6.29%6.29%
Growth Rate-0.67%0.33%1.33%
Year 1 PV (M)18.2718.4618.64
Year 2 PV (M)25.0525.5626.07
Year 3 PV (M)30.8731.8132.77
Year 4 PV (M)35.8137.2838.78
Year 5 PV (M)39.9842.0344.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,285.691,351.721,420.44
Equity Value (M)1,435.661,506.851,580.87
Shares Outstanding (M)4.094.094.09
Fair Value$351.34$368.76$386.87
Upside / Downside1,277.79%1,346.11%1,417.15%

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