Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $25.02 - $33.72 | $29.48 |
| Multi-Stage | $48.86 - $53.88 | $51.32 |
| Blended Fair Value | $40.40 | |
| Current Price | $78.54 | |
| Upside | -48.56% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -2.10% | 3.48% | 1.67 | 1.67 | 1.64 | 1.81 | 1.84 | 1.86 | 1.90 | 1.96 | 2.29 | 1.72 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 0.50% | 1.53% | -9.33% | -1.81% | -0.99% | -2.11% | -2.90% | -14.58% | 33.46% | 44.38% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.93% | 2.15% | 3.26% | 2.88% | 3.99% | 7.68% | 4.32% | 3.60% | 3.67% | 3.18% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 3,259.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 978.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 2,281.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 651.80 | 407.38 | 244.43 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 2,281.00 | 2,281.00 | 2,281.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -651.80 | -407.38 | -244.43 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 1,629.20 | 1,873.63 | 2,036.58 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 598.36 | 598.36 | 598.36 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 2.72 | 3.13 | 3.40 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.63 | 1.63 | 1.63 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 2.72 | 3.13 | 3.40 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 4.36 | 4.77 | 5.04 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -7.08% | -6.08% | -5.08% |
| Fair Value | $25.02 | $29.48 | $33.72 |
| Upside / Downside | -68.15% | -62.47% | -57.07% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 3,259.00 | 3,060.69 | 2,874.45 | 2,699.55 | 2,535.28 | 2,381.01 | 2,452.44 |
| Payout Ratio | 30.01% | 42.01% | 54.01% | 66.00% | 78.00% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 978.00 | 1,285.72 | 1,552.36 | 1,781.80 | 1,977.57 | 2,142.91 | 2,268.51 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -7.08% | -6.08% | -5.08% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 1,165.95 | 1,178.50 | 1,191.05 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 1,276.62 | 1,304.25 | 1,332.17 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,328.80 | 1,372.17 | 1,416.47 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,337.42 | 1,395.93 | 1,456.34 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,314.24 | 1,386.50 | 1,461.91 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 22,815.15 | 24,069.61 | 25,378.64 |
| Equity Value (M) | 29,238.18 | 30,706.95 | 32,236.58 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 598.36 | 598.36 | 598.36 |
| Fair Value | $48.86 | $51.32 | $53.88 |
| Upside / Downside | -37.78% | -34.66% | -31.40% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| THFF | First Financial Corporation | 3.32% | $1.98 | 31.67% |
| IRDM | Iridium Communications Inc. | 3.31% | $0.59 | 49.66% |
| PDCO | Patterson Companies, Inc. | 3.31% | $1.04 | 66.64% |
| 0HRZ.L | Coterra Energy Inc. | 3.30% | $0.88 | 40.64% |
| ACI | Albertsons Companies, Inc. | 3.30% | $0.57 | 33.33% |
| KDP | Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. | 3.30% | $0.92 | 78.89% |
| SPB | Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc. | 3.30% | $1.98 | 48.25% |
| 0IUX.L | Genuine Parts Company | 3.29% | $4.05 | 69.77% |
| BG | Bunge Global S.A. | 3.29% | $3.05 | 31.37% |
| HDGCX | The Hartford Dividend and Growth Fund Class C | 3.29% | $1.08 | 20.58% |
| PSBD | Palmer Square Capital BDC Inc. | 3.29% | $0.40 | 90.32% |
| LIEN | Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc. | 3.28% | $0.34 | 23.50% |
| REXR | Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc. | 3.28% | $1.28 | 90.14% |
| CVCY | Central Valley Community Bancorp | 3.27% | $0.58 | 32.80% |
| F-PD | Ford Motor Company 6.500% Notes | 3.27% | $0.74 | 63.45% |
| FSBW | FS Bancorp, Inc. | 3.27% | $1.33 | 31.78% |
| TRNO | Terreno Realty Corporation | 3.27% | $1.93 | 62.02% |
| 0I1P.L | Comerica Incorporated | 3.26% | $2.82 | 52.30% |
| ALEX | Alexander & Baldwin, Inc. | 3.26% | $0.67 | 66.95% |
| BRX | Brixmor Property Group Inc. | 3.26% | $0.85 | 78.30% |
| AGM-PC | Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation | 3.24% | $7.85 | 39.89% |
| HTO | H2O America | 3.24% | $1.60 | 52.08% |
| WEC | WEC Energy Group, Inc. | 3.24% | $3.45 | 66.21% |
| XOM | Exxon Mobil Corporation | 3.24% | $3.98 | 57.54% |
| SCL | Stepan Company | 3.22% | $1.52 | 76.82% |
| HBT | HBT Financial, Inc. | 3.21% | $0.83 | 33.20% |
| KALU | Kaiser Aluminum Corporation | 3.21% | $3.86 | 70.13% |
| SMP | Standard Motor Products, Inc. | 3.20% | $1.18 | 38.74% |
| 0QZA.L | ConocoPhillips | 3.19% | $3.09 | 43.65% |
| PAG | Penske Automotive Group, Inc. | 3.18% | $5.04 | 35.22% |
| CRBG | Corebridge Financial, Inc. | 3.17% | $0.96 | 52.57% |
| ED | Consolidated Edison, Inc. | 3.17% | $3.17 | 56.36% |
| LARK | Landmark Bancorp, Inc. | 3.17% | $0.82 | 38.75% |
| NBPU.L | NB Private Equity Partners Limited | 3.17% | $0.67 | 70.20% |
| PFBC | Preferred Bank | 3.16% | $3.03 | 29.67% |
| HNI | HNI Corporation | 3.15% | $1.34 | 44.63% |
| RBB | RBB Bancorp | 3.15% | $0.64 | 43.45% |
| FG | F&G Annuities & Life, Inc. | 3.14% | $0.94 | 28.23% |
| NBHC | National Bank Holdings Corporation | 3.14% | $1.19 | 37.27% |
| 0KZA.L | SM Energy Company | 3.13% | $0.60 | 9.44% |
| CBU | Community Bank System, Inc. | 3.13% | $1.82 | 46.85% |
| DTE | DTE Energy Company | 3.13% | $4.08 | 87.19% |
| RNST | Renasant Corporation | 3.13% | $1.11 | 48.14% |
| BSRR | Sierra Bancorp | 3.11% | $1.01 | 34.68% |
| FCF | First Commonwealth Financial Corporation | 3.11% | $0.52 | 38.19% |
| PNC | The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. | 3.11% | $6.57 | 39.89% |
| PRK | Park National Corporation | 3.11% | $4.80 | 44.20% |
| GEF | Greif, Inc. | 3.10% | $2.12 | 12.04% |
| 0QAH.L | Merck & Co., Inc. | 3.09% | $3.25 | 42.60% |
| BANR | Banner Corporation | 3.09% | $1.93 | 35.15% |