Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Geovis Technology Co.,Ltd (688568.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.51 - $48.87$22.51
Multi-Stage$8.63 - $9.43$9.02
Blended Fair Value$15.77
Current Price$43.54
Upside-63.79%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS133.69%0.00%0.120.070.060.070.000.000.060.000.000.00
YoY Growth--64.10%18.54%-5.00%0.00%-100.00%-97.10%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.33%0.29%0.26%0.34%0.00%0.01%0.23%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)352.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)102.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)249.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)70.5044.0626.44
Cash Retained (M)249.86249.86249.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-70.50-44.06-26.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)179.36205.80223.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)742.08742.08742.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.280.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.280.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.380.420.44
WACC / Discount Rate8.47%8.47%8.47%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$13.51$22.51$48.87
Upside / Downside-68.96%-48.30%12.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)352.49375.40399.80425.79453.46482.94497.43
Payout Ratio29.11%41.29%53.47%65.65%77.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)102.63155.01213.77279.51352.90434.64460.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.47%8.47%8.47%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)141.57142.91144.25
Year 2 PV (M)178.30181.70185.13
Year 3 PV (M)212.92219.04225.26
Year 4 PV (M)245.52254.96264.67
Year 5 PV (M)276.17289.51303.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,348.185,606.505,874.71
Equity Value (M)6,402.666,694.616,997.38
Shares Outstanding (M)742.08742.08742.08
Fair Value$8.63$9.02$9.43
Upside / Downside-80.18%-79.28%-78.34%

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