Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shanghai Haoyuan Chemexpress Co., Ltd. (688131.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$237.61 - $279.95$262.35
Multi-Stage$71.51 - $78.42$74.90
Blended Fair Value$168.63
Current Price$82.60
Upside104.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.39%63.70%0.220.190.220.010.010.110.010.000.030.02
YoY Growth--15.38%-13.40%2,486.58%-30.72%-88.58%656.16%296.77%-88.56%73.64%1,033.04%
Dividend Yield--0.55%0.76%0.39%0.01%0.01%0.10%0.00%0.00%0.03%0.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)294.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)48.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)246.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)58.9836.8622.12
Cash Retained (M)246.33246.33246.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-58.98-36.86-22.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)187.35209.47224.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)209.50209.50209.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.891.001.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.891.001.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.131.231.30
WACC / Discount Rate5.04%5.04%5.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$237.61$262.35$279.95
Upside / Downside187.67%217.62%238.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)294.90314.07334.48356.23379.38404.04416.16
Payout Ratio16.47%31.18%45.88%60.59%75.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)48.5797.91153.47215.83285.65363.64384.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.04%5.04%5.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)92.3493.2194.09
Year 2 PV (M)136.49139.09141.72
Year 3 PV (M)181.03186.23191.52
Year 4 PV (M)225.95234.64243.58
Year 5 PV (M)271.27284.37297.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,074.5414,754.3515,460.17
Equity Value (M)14,981.6215,691.8916,429.05
Shares Outstanding (M)209.50209.50209.50
Fair Value$71.51$74.90$78.42
Upside / Downside-13.42%-9.32%-5.06%

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