Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shentong Technology Group Co., Ltd (605228.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.13 - $1.66$1.38
Multi-Stage$1.90 - $2.09$2.00
Blended Fair Value$1.69
Current Price$17.30
Upside-90.23%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS4.91%0.00%0.050.030.070.090.030.040.470.190.030.00
YoY Growth--40.21%-52.41%-17.13%222.53%-28.74%-92.09%150.92%457.77%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.46%0.31%0.80%1.02%0.21%0.44%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)64.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)63.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.958.094.85
Cash Retained (M)63.8663.8663.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.95-8.09-4.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)50.9155.7759.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)434.59434.59434.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.130.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.130.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.14
WACC / Discount Rate8.32%8.32%8.32%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.13$1.38$1.66
Upside / Downside-93.46%-92.00%-90.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)64.7364.0863.4462.8162.1861.5663.40
Payout Ratio1.35%19.08%36.81%54.54%72.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.8712.2223.3534.2544.9455.4058.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.32%8.32%8.32%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)11.1711.2911.40
Year 2 PV (M)19.5019.9020.31
Year 3 PV (M)26.1426.9527.78
Year 4 PV (M)31.3432.6433.98
Year 5 PV (M)35.3137.1539.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)702.80739.40777.51
Equity Value (M)826.28867.33910.04
Shares Outstanding (M)434.59434.59434.59
Fair Value$1.90$2.00$2.09
Upside / Downside-89.01%-88.46%-87.90%

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