Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

China Kings Resources Group Co.,Ltd. (603505.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.54 - $16.59$9.86
Multi-Stage$4.70 - $5.13$4.91
Blended Fair Value$7.39
Current Price$19.00
Upside-61.13%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS49.78%39.85%0.390.160.130.090.090.050.030.020.020.02
YoY Growth--149.11%21.58%50.14%0.28%65.30%80.00%70.56%-12.54%18.60%19.22%
Dividend Yield--2.23%0.70%0.64%0.80%1.20%0.88%0.57%0.28%1.27%1.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)242.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)134.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)107.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)48.4630.2918.17
Cash Retained (M)107.33107.33107.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-48.46-30.29-18.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)58.8877.0589.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)837.63837.63837.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.27
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6.54$9.86$16.59
Upside / Downside-65.59%-48.11%-12.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)242.30258.04274.82292.68311.70331.97341.92
Payout Ratio55.70%62.56%69.42%76.28%83.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)134.96161.43190.78223.26259.15298.77316.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)146.40147.79149.17
Year 2 PV (M)156.90159.89162.90
Year 3 PV (M)166.51171.29176.16
Year 4 PV (M)175.28182.02188.95
Year 5 PV (M)183.25192.11201.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,111.763,262.063,418.11
Equity Value (M)3,940.104,115.154,296.60
Shares Outstanding (M)837.63837.63837.63
Fair Value$4.70$4.91$5.13
Upside / Downside-75.24%-74.14%-73.00%

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