Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Zhuzhou Smelter Group Co.,Ltd. (600961.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.53 - $17.11$13.48
Multi-Stage$14.90 - $16.37$15.62
Blended Fair Value$14.55
Current Price$16.23
Upside-10.34%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-10.40%-5.71%0.120.150.210.170.190.200.190.000.180.21
YoY Growth---23.32%-29.17%22.91%-7.28%-6.72%7.70%0.00%-100.00%-12.82%0.42%
Dividend Yield--1.21%1.32%2.56%1.81%3.02%3.49%1.81%0.00%1.65%2.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,062.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)96.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)966.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)212.58132.8679.72
Cash Retained (M)966.40966.40966.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-212.58-132.86-79.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)753.82833.54886.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,113.351,113.351,113.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.680.750.80
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.680.750.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.760.840.88
WACC / Discount Rate8.03%8.03%8.03%
Growth Rate0.72%1.72%2.72%
Fair Value$10.53$13.48$17.11
Upside / Downside-35.10%-16.93%5.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,062.921,081.241,099.891,118.851,138.141,157.761,192.50
Payout Ratio9.08%25.26%41.45%57.63%73.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)96.51273.17455.88644.82840.131,041.991,103.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.03%8.03%8.03%
Growth Rate0.72%1.72%2.72%
Year 1 PV (M)250.38252.87255.35
Year 2 PV (M)383.00390.65398.36
Year 3 PV (M)496.55511.49526.72
Year 4 PV (M)592.99616.90641.51
Year 5 PV (M)674.13708.26743.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,195.0714,913.8515,661.46
Equity Value (M)16,592.1317,394.0118,227.18
Shares Outstanding (M)1,113.351,113.351,113.35
Fair Value$14.90$15.62$16.37
Upside / Downside-8.18%-3.74%0.87%

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