Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co., Ltd (600882.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.30 - $89.18$83.57
Multi-Stage$11.75 - $12.86$12.30
Blended Fair Value$47.93
Current Price$24.38
Upside96.61%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-21.37%-19.89%0.050.030.060.040.080.180.180.160.040.00
YoY Growth--59.58%-39.53%31.36%-45.42%-56.55%1.87%11.27%295.27%876.02%-99.17%
Dividend Yield--0.23%0.24%0.19%0.12%0.14%0.79%1.81%1.92%0.39%0.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)204.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)172.18
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.9025.5615.34
Cash Retained (M)172.18172.18172.18
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.90-25.56-15.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)131.28146.62156.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)456.10456.10456.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.320.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.320.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.390.41
WACC / Discount Rate6.84%6.84%6.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$28.30$83.57$89.18
Upside / Downside16.07%242.78%265.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)204.52217.81231.97247.05263.10280.20288.61
Payout Ratio15.81%30.65%45.49%60.32%75.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.3366.75105.51149.03197.75252.18266.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.84%6.84%6.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)61.9062.4863.07
Year 2 PV (M)90.7192.4494.18
Year 3 PV (M)118.80122.21125.68
Year 4 PV (M)146.17151.79157.57
Year 5 PV (M)172.83181.18189.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,767.874,998.165,237.26
Equity Value (M)5,358.275,608.255,867.61
Shares Outstanding (M)456.10456.10456.10
Fair Value$11.75$12.30$12.86
Upside / Downside-51.81%-49.57%-47.23%

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