Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Hunan Corun New Energy Co., Ltd. (600478.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.22 - $22.65$21.23
Multi-Stage$13.21 - $14.49$13.84
Blended Fair Value$17.53
Current Price$6.57
Upside166.85%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.46%15.81%0.100.090.060.060.060.040.050.050.020.02
YoY Growth--13.88%59.03%-7.68%7.41%29.90%-6.49%-10.26%129.80%0.88%-4.41%
Dividend Yield--2.08%2.10%0.67%1.17%1.57%1.14%0.79%0.90%0.25%0.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)189.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)109.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)79.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)37.8423.6514.19
Cash Retained (M)79.8079.8079.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-37.84-23.65-14.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)41.9656.1565.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,661.401,661.401,661.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.11
WACC / Discount Rate2.20%2.20%2.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$19.22$21.23$22.65
Upside / Downside192.61%223.08%244.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)189.22201.52214.62228.57243.42259.25267.02
Payout Ratio57.83%64.26%70.70%77.13%83.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)109.42129.50151.72176.29203.42233.32247.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.20%2.20%2.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)125.52126.71127.90
Year 2 PV (M)142.56145.27148.01
Year 3 PV (M)160.56165.17169.87
Year 4 PV (M)179.58186.48193.59
Year 5 PV (M)199.66209.30219.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,135.8822,156.7523,216.69
Equity Value (M)21,943.7622,989.6924,075.38
Shares Outstanding (M)1,661.401,661.401,661.40
Fair Value$13.21$13.84$14.49
Upside / Downside101.04%110.62%120.56%

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