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Panasonic Manufacturing Malaysia Berhad (3719.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.11 - $5.72$4.92
Multi-Stage$12.60 - $13.90$13.24
Blended Fair Value$9.08
Current Price$8.40
Upside8.09%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202520242023202220212020
DPS-9.66%0.00%1.371.230.841.652.002.280.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--11.47%46.99%-49.08%-17.68%-12.39%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--12.00%6.15%4.22%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)43.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.24
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.785.493.29
Cash Retained (M)6.246.246.24
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.78-5.49-3.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)-2.540.752.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)60.0960.0960.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.010.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.630.630.63
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.010.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.580.640.68
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate-6.80%-5.80%-4.80%
Fair Value$4.11$4.92$5.72
Upside / Downside-51.02%-41.43%-31.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)43.9041.3538.9636.7034.5732.5733.54
Payout Ratio85.80%86.64%87.48%88.32%89.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37.6635.8334.0832.4130.8229.3131.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate-6.80%-5.80%-4.80%
Year 1 PV (M)33.3033.6634.02
Year 2 PV (M)29.4430.0830.72
Year 3 PV (M)26.0326.8727.74
Year 4 PV (M)23.0124.0125.05
Year 5 PV (M)20.3421.4522.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)625.24659.51695.27
Equity Value (M)757.36795.58835.40
Shares Outstanding (M)60.0960.0960.09
Fair Value$12.60$13.24$13.90
Upside / Downside50.04%57.62%65.50%

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