Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Advanced Ceramic X Corporation (3152.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$87.07 - $131.83$108.14
Multi-Stage$186.16 - $204.94$195.37
Blended Fair Value$151.75
Current Price$123.00
Upside23.38%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS-17.92%0.00%3.673.587.9810.788.419.860.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--2.51%-55.12%-25.93%28.11%-14.68%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.67%1.52%3.40%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)697.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)253.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)443.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)139.5087.1952.31
Cash Retained (M)443.52443.52443.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-139.50-87.19-52.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)304.02356.33391.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)69.1769.1769.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.405.155.66
LTM Dividend per Share3.673.673.67
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.405.155.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.078.829.33
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate-2.21%-1.21%-0.21%
Fair Value$87.07$108.14$131.83
Upside / Downside-29.21%-12.08%7.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)697.50689.06680.72672.49664.35656.32676.01
Payout Ratio36.41%47.13%57.85%68.57%79.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)253.98324.76393.78461.09526.72590.69625.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate-2.21%-1.21%-0.21%
Year 1 PV (M)300.86303.93307.01
Year 2 PV (M)337.96344.91351.93
Year 3 PV (M)366.61377.97389.56
Year 4 PV (M)387.96404.08420.69
Year 5 PV (M)403.06424.10446.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,080.4711,658.7212,260.86
Equity Value (M)12,876.9313,513.7114,176.05
Shares Outstanding (M)69.1769.1769.17
Fair Value$186.16$195.37$204.94
Upside / Downside51.35%58.84%66.62%

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