Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

AnHui Jinchun Nonwoven Co., Ltd. (300877.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$132.44 - $156.03$146.23
Multi-Stage$86.19 - $94.60$90.32
Blended Fair Value$118.27
Current Price$29.06
Upside307.00%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.26%11.67%0.130.040.250.750.020.050.080.030.000.11
YoY Growth--191.36%-82.12%-66.54%3,798.85%-62.97%-36.11%159.88%0.00%-100.00%145.04%
Dividend Yield--0.95%0.31%1.49%3.57%0.04%0.09%0.14%0.00%0.00%0.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)92.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)76.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.4311.526.91
Cash Retained (M)76.5176.5176.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.43-11.52-6.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)58.0864.9969.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)117.46117.46117.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.490.550.59
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.490.550.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.630.690.73
WACC / Discount Rate3.16%3.16%3.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$132.44$146.23$156.03
Upside / Downside355.73%403.18%436.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)92.1698.15104.53111.32118.56126.27130.05
Payout Ratio16.98%31.58%46.19%60.79%75.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.6531.0048.2867.6889.39113.64120.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate3.16%3.16%3.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)29.7730.0530.33
Year 2 PV (M)44.5245.3746.22
Year 3 PV (M)59.9261.6463.40
Year 4 PV (M)76.0078.9281.93
Year 5 PV (M)92.7897.26101.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,821.7610,296.1610,788.71
Equity Value (M)10,124.7510,609.4011,112.50
Shares Outstanding (M)117.46117.46117.46
Fair Value$86.19$90.32$94.60
Upside / Downside196.61%210.81%225.55%

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