Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Zhejiang MTCN Technology Co.,Ltd. (003026.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.74 - $66.26$45.68
Multi-Stage$8.01 - $8.77$8.38
Blended Fair Value$27.03
Current Price$37.76
Upside-28.42%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS34.38%25.31%0.080.240.510.760.000.020.030.140.020.03
YoY Growth---64.80%-53.68%-32.72%0.00%-100.00%-43.96%-76.04%698.51%-42.36%252.57%
Dividend Yield--0.29%1.11%1.37%1.73%0.00%0.12%0.00%0.00%0.11%0.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)43.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)34.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.795.503.30
Cash Retained (M)34.1334.1334.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.79-5.50-3.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)25.3428.6430.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)131.96131.96131.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.290.31
WACC / Discount Rate7.18%7.18%7.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$16.74$45.68$66.26
Upside / Downside-55.67%20.96%75.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)43.9646.8249.8653.1156.5660.2362.04
Payout Ratio22.37%35.89%49.42%62.95%76.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.8316.8124.6433.4343.2554.2157.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.18%7.18%7.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)15.5315.6815.83
Year 2 PV (M)21.0521.4521.86
Year 3 PV (M)26.3927.1527.92
Year 4 PV (M)31.5632.7834.02
Year 5 PV (M)36.5638.3340.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)926.03970.761,017.19
Equity Value (M)1,057.131,106.141,156.99
Shares Outstanding (M)131.96131.96131.96
Fair Value$8.01$8.38$8.77
Upside / Downside-78.78%-77.80%-76.78%

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