Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jiangsu Azure Corporation (002245.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.00 - $13.55$10.42
Multi-Stage$6.34 - $6.92$6.62
Blended Fair Value$8.52
Current Price$20.02
Upside-57.43%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.17%6.09%0.050.030.060.030.010.020.030.020.030.03
YoY Growth--34.37%-44.39%133.33%111.11%-40.00%-37.27%58.93%-15.75%-17.49%17.98%
Dividend Yield--0.33%0.40%0.44%0.12%0.11%0.55%0.67%0.23%0.27%0.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)719.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)99.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)619.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)143.8289.8953.93
Cash Retained (M)619.27619.27619.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-143.82-89.89-53.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)475.44529.38565.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,154.371,154.371,154.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.410.460.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.410.460.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.550.58
WACC / Discount Rate12.07%12.07%12.07%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8.00$10.42$13.55
Upside / Downside-60.03%-47.95%-32.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)719.11765.85815.64868.65925.11985.251,014.80
Payout Ratio13.88%29.11%44.33%59.55%74.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)99.85222.92361.58517.32691.77886.72938.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate12.07%12.07%12.07%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)197.05198.91200.78
Year 2 PV (M)282.50287.88293.31
Year 3 PV (M)357.26367.52377.97
Year 4 PV (M)422.28438.52455.22
Year 5 PV (M)478.45501.56525.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,583.585,853.276,133.28
Equity Value (M)7,321.127,647.667,986.12
Shares Outstanding (M)1,154.371,154.371,154.37
Fair Value$6.34$6.62$6.92
Upside / Downside-68.32%-66.91%-65.44%

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