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Olympic Steel, Inc. (ZEUS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.56 - $73.10$42.14
Multi-Stage$19.43 - $21.20$20.30
Blended Fair Value$31.22
Current Price$30.45
Upside2.52%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS50.02%22.50%0.570.470.340.080.080.070.070.070.070.07
YoY Growth--20.01%38.94%352.14%0.11%0.68%-0.11%0.23%0.11%-0.23%0.11%
Dividend Yield--1.81%0.67%0.65%0.20%0.26%0.72%0.44%0.36%0.40%0.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.761.721.03
Cash Retained (M)6.876.876.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.76-1.72-1.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.125.155.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11.7411.7411.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.440.50
LTM Dividend per Share0.590.590.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.440.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.941.031.09
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$27.56$42.14$73.10
Upside / Downside-9.50%38.38%140.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13.7914.6915.6416.6617.7418.8919.46
Payout Ratio50.16%58.12%66.09%74.06%82.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.928.5410.3412.3414.5517.0018.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)7.757.827.90
Year 2 PV (M)8.528.688.85
Year 3 PV (M)9.249.509.77
Year 4 PV (M)9.8910.2710.66
Year 5 PV (M)10.4911.0011.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)182.18190.98200.12
Equity Value (M)228.07238.26248.82
Shares Outstanding (M)11.7411.7411.74
Fair Value$19.43$20.30$21.20
Upside / Downside-36.19%-33.34%-30.38%

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