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Willis Lease Finance Corporation (WLFC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Rental & Leasing ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$343.87 - $761.89$495.74
Multi-Stage$267.48 - $292.68$279.85
Blended Fair Value$387.80
Current Price$137.09
Upside182.88%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%1.530.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.97%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)122.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)113.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.5315.339.20
Cash Retained (M)113.34113.34113.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.53-15.33-9.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)88.8198.01104.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7.007.007.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share12.6914.0014.88
LTM Dividend per Share1.331.331.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share12.6914.0014.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend14.0115.3316.20
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate4.83%5.83%6.83%
Fair Value$343.87$495.74$761.89
Upside / Downside150.83%261.62%455.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)122.63129.78137.34145.34153.81162.77167.65
Payout Ratio7.58%24.06%40.55%57.03%73.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.2931.2355.6982.89113.07146.49155.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate4.83%5.83%6.83%
Year 1 PV (M)28.3528.6228.89
Year 2 PV (M)45.9046.7847.67
Year 3 PV (M)62.0463.8365.66
Year 4 PV (M)76.8479.8282.87
Year 5 PV (M)90.3994.7899.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,569.121,645.411,724.63
Equity Value (M)1,872.651,959.252,049.08
Shares Outstanding (M)7.007.007.00
Fair Value$267.48$279.85$292.68
Upside / Downside95.11%104.14%113.50%

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