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Winmark Corporation (WINA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$124.13 - $200.94$158.65
Multi-Stage$166.09 - $181.15$173.48
Blended Fair Value$166.07
Current Price$502.49
Upside-66.95%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS62.32%3.74%10.5711.885.249.023.870.940.590.480.420.33
YoY Growth---10.99%126.73%-41.93%133.03%312.59%58.95%22.94%15.60%24.31%-95.44%
Dividend Yield--3.36%3.28%1.63%3.99%2.08%0.71%0.31%0.37%0.37%0.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)41.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)1.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.265.163.10
Cash Retained (M)1.551.551.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.26-5.16-3.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)-6.70-3.61-1.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3.683.683.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share-1.82-0.98-0.42
LTM Dividend per Share10.8010.8010.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share-1.82-0.98-0.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.989.8210.38
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate1.74%2.74%3.74%
Fair Value$124.13$158.65$200.94
Upside / Downside-75.30%-68.43%-60.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)41.2842.4143.5744.7645.9847.2448.66
Payout Ratio96.24%94.99%93.74%92.50%91.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39.7340.2840.8441.4041.9642.5245.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate1.74%2.74%3.74%
Year 1 PV (M)36.5636.9237.28
Year 2 PV (M)33.6534.3134.99
Year 3 PV (M)30.9631.8832.82
Year 4 PV (M)28.4829.6230.79
Year 5 PV (M)26.2027.5128.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)454.79477.58501.28
Equity Value (M)610.64637.83666.04
Shares Outstanding (M)3.683.683.68
Fair Value$166.09$173.48$181.15
Upside / Downside-66.95%-65.48%-63.95%

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