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TPBI Public Company Limited (TPBI.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.49 - $9.02$7.06
Multi-Stage$11.60 - $12.75$12.16
Blended Fair Value$9.61
Current Price$3.00
Upside220.41%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.250.200.000.250.000.000.380.580.520.48
YoY Growth--25.08%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-33.46%11.11%8.01%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.28%5.04%0.00%5.91%0.00%0.00%7.69%4.36%3.55%3.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)204.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)125.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)79.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.9225.5715.34
Cash Retained (M)79.3879.3879.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.92-25.57-15.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)38.4653.8164.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)417.06417.06417.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.130.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.130.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.390.430.45
WACC / Discount Rate6.29%6.29%6.29%
Growth Rate-0.80%0.20%1.20%
Fair Value$5.49$7.06$9.02
Upside / Downside82.98%135.34%200.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)204.58205.00205.41205.83206.24206.66212.86
Payout Ratio61.20%66.96%72.72%78.48%84.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)125.20137.26149.37161.53173.74186.00196.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.29%6.29%6.29%
Growth Rate-0.80%0.20%1.20%
Year 1 PV (M)127.85129.13130.42
Year 2 PV (M)129.58132.21134.86
Year 3 PV (M)130.51134.50138.57
Year 4 PV (M)130.75136.10141.61
Year 5 PV (M)130.37137.07144.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,189.034,404.464,628.67
Equity Value (M)4,838.085,073.485,318.18
Shares Outstanding (M)417.06417.06417.06
Fair Value$11.60$12.16$12.75
Upside / Downside286.68%305.49%325.05%

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