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iStar Inc. (STAR-PG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.69 - $28.71$24.71
Multi-Stage$37.52 - $41.26$39.35
Blended Fair Value$32.03
Current Price$25.97
Upside23.35%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.55%0.00%0.710.000.750.810.780.800.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%-7.82%3.77%-2.42%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.72%0.00%2.55%4.46%5.66%9.72%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)259.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)88.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)170.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)51.8932.4319.46
Cash Retained (M)170.65170.65170.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-51.89-32.43-19.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)118.75138.21151.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)71.6871.6871.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.661.932.11
LTM Dividend per Share1.241.241.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.661.932.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.903.173.35
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-4.31%-3.31%-2.31%
Fair Value$20.69$24.71$28.71
Upside / Downside-20.33%-4.84%10.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)259.47250.88242.57234.54226.77219.26225.84
Payout Ratio34.23%45.39%56.54%67.69%78.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)88.82113.86137.15158.76178.80197.33208.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-4.31%-3.31%-2.31%
Year 1 PV (M)103.30104.38105.46
Year 2 PV (M)112.89115.26117.66
Year 3 PV (M)118.57122.32126.16
Year 4 PV (M)121.15126.29131.60
Year 5 PV (M)121.31127.78134.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,112.192,224.892,342.35
Equity Value (M)2,689.412,820.942,957.76
Shares Outstanding (M)71.6871.6871.68
Fair Value$37.52$39.35$41.26
Upside / Downside44.47%51.53%58.88%

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