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Irani Papel e Embalagem S.A. (RANI3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$174.52 - $334.14$313.14
Multi-Stage$52.35 - $57.30$54.78
Blended Fair Value$183.96
Current Price$8.34
Upside2,105.77%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS102.25%18.82%0.540.890.680.390.070.020.000.020.000.08
YoY Growth---38.73%29.57%76.56%443.60%344.13%5,377.94%-98.36%1,227.88%-98.21%-22.43%
Dividend Yield--7.53%10.40%9.37%7.36%1.75%0.74%0.01%1.24%0.07%3.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)390.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)169.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)221.18
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)78.0548.7829.27
Cash Retained (M)221.18221.18221.18
(-) Cash Required (M)-78.05-48.78-29.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)143.13172.40191.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)232.26232.26232.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.620.740.83
LTM Dividend per Share0.730.730.73
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.620.740.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.341.471.55
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$174.52$313.14$334.14
Upside / Downside1,992.61%3,654.71%3,906.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)390.24415.60442.62471.39502.03534.66550.70
Payout Ratio43.32%52.66%61.99%71.33%80.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)169.06218.84274.39336.23404.96481.19509.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)203.92205.85207.78
Year 2 PV (M)238.23242.77247.35
Year 3 PV (M)272.02279.82287.78
Year 4 PV (M)305.27317.01329.08
Year 5 PV (M)337.99354.32371.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,801.5411,323.2611,864.94
Equity Value (M)12,158.9712,723.0313,308.21
Shares Outstanding (M)232.26232.26232.26
Fair Value$52.35$54.78$57.30
Upside / Downside527.71%556.83%587.04%

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