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Old Republic International Corporation (ORI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29.37 - $44.40$36.45
Multi-Stage$45.69 - $49.90$47.76
Blended Fair Value$42.10
Current Price$42.47
Upside-0.86%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.78%3.74%1.091.102.324.081.002.162.000.800.780.77
YoY Growth---1.31%-52.48%-43.12%307.52%-53.57%8.00%150.91%2.58%1.31%1.59%
Dividend Yield--2.78%3.58%9.29%15.77%4.58%14.14%9.40%3.71%3.79%4.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)834.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)776.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)57.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)166.80104.2562.55
Cash Retained (M)57.3057.3057.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-166.80-104.25-62.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)-109.50-46.95-5.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)249.79249.79249.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.44-0.19-0.02
LTM Dividend per Share3.113.113.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.44-0.19-0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.672.923.09
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-0.01%0.99%1.99%
Fair Value$29.37$36.45$44.40
Upside / Downside-30.85%-14.17%4.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)834.00842.23850.53858.92867.40875.95902.23
Payout Ratio93.13%92.50%91.88%91.25%90.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)776.70779.09781.45783.78786.09788.36834.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-0.01%0.99%1.99%
Year 1 PV (M)707.16714.24721.31
Year 2 PV (M)643.83656.77669.84
Year 3 PV (M)586.13603.89622.01
Year 4 PV (M)533.58555.25577.57
Year 5 PV (M)485.72510.50536.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,457.108,888.559,337.44
Equity Value (M)11,413.5211,929.2112,464.46
Shares Outstanding (M)249.79249.79249.79
Fair Value$45.69$47.76$49.90
Upside / Downside7.59%12.45%17.49%

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