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Nava Nakorn Public Company Limited (NNCL.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.47 - $5.50$3.57
Multi-Stage$3.40 - $3.73$3.56
Blended Fair Value$3.56
Current Price$1.30
Upside174.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.10%3.80%0.110.100.100.160.070.090.080.040.000.00
YoY Growth--10.00%-6.69%-34.79%112.79%-14.18%12.50%116.22%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--6.48%4.95%5.14%6.41%2.87%6.08%4.22%2.13%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)273.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)225.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)48.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)54.7834.2420.54
Cash Retained (M)48.5948.5948.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-54.78-34.24-20.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)-6.1914.3528.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,134.662,134.662,134.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate2.18%3.18%4.18%
Fair Value$2.47$3.57$5.50
Upside / Downside89.88%174.26%322.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)273.89282.59291.57300.83310.39320.25329.85
Payout Ratio82.26%83.81%85.36%86.90%88.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)225.30236.83248.87261.43274.54288.22305.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate2.18%3.18%4.18%
Year 1 PV (M)220.38222.54224.69
Year 2 PV (M)215.49219.73224.01
Year 3 PV (M)210.64216.88223.25
Year 4 PV (M)205.83214.01222.43
Year 5 PV (M)201.07211.11221.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,214.106,524.196,846.55
Equity Value (M)7,267.517,608.467,962.47
Shares Outstanding (M)2,134.662,134.662,134.66
Fair Value$3.40$3.56$3.73
Upside / Downside161.89%174.17%186.93%

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