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Hawkins, Inc. (HWKN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$93.54 - $248.13$143.03
Multi-Stage$63.58 - $69.49$66.48
Blended Fair Value$104.76
Current Price$176.91
Upside-40.79%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS8.30%6.41%0.700.640.580.530.480.470.570.440.420.40
YoY Growth--10.55%10.31%8.55%10.24%2.08%-17.95%30.72%5.51%5.16%5.06%
Dividend Yield--0.49%0.72%1.19%1.47%1.50%2.18%2.64%2.39%1.74%1.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)83.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)67.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.6210.396.23
Cash Retained (M)67.8867.8867.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.62-10.39-6.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)51.2657.4961.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)20.8420.8420.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.462.762.96
LTM Dividend per Share0.730.730.73
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.462.762.96
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.193.493.69
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$93.54$143.03$248.13
Upside / Downside-47.13%-19.15%40.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)83.1288.5294.28100.41106.93113.88117.30
Payout Ratio18.33%32.66%47.00%61.33%75.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.2428.9244.3161.5880.91102.49108.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)26.2626.5026.75
Year 2 PV (M)36.5337.2337.93
Year 3 PV (M)46.1047.4248.77
Year 4 PV (M)55.0057.1159.29
Year 5 PV (M)63.2666.3269.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,098.201,151.241,206.31
Equity Value (M)1,325.351,385.831,448.55
Shares Outstanding (M)20.8420.8420.84
Fair Value$63.58$66.48$69.49
Upside / Downside-64.06%-62.42%-60.72%

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