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Gray Media, Inc. (GTN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BroadcastingSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.85 - $60.99$35.00
Multi-Stage$15.79 - $17.24$16.50
Blended Fair Value$25.75
Current Price$4.53
Upside468.45%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.330.310.310.320.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--6.67%0.00%-3.23%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.64%5.14%3.55%1.45%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)94.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)62.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.8011.757.05
Cash Retained (M)62.0062.0062.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.80-11.75-7.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)43.2050.2554.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)97.0097.0097.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.450.520.57
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.450.520.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.780.850.90
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$22.85$35.00$60.99
Upside / Downside404.33%672.67%1,246.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)94.00100.11106.62113.55120.93128.79132.65
Payout Ratio34.04%45.23%56.43%67.62%78.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.0045.2860.1676.7895.30115.91122.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)41.1241.5141.90
Year 2 PV (M)49.6250.5651.51
Year 3 PV (M)57.5159.1660.84
Year 4 PV (M)64.8267.3269.88
Year 5 PV (M)71.6075.0678.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,246.641,306.851,369.37
Equity Value (M)1,531.301,600.451,672.15
Shares Outstanding (M)97.0097.0097.00
Fair Value$15.79$16.50$17.24
Upside / Downside248.49%264.23%280.54%

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