Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $166.20 - $212.63 | $191.08 |
| Multi-Stage | $280.72 - $312.22 | $296.12 |
| Blended Fair Value | $243.60 | |
| Current Price | $442.00 | |
| Upside | -44.89% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -22.90% | -14.13% | 2.86 | 5.20 | 5.70 | 10.54 | 6.00 | 10.50 | 10.10 | 13.10 | 12.50 | 10.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -44.96% | -8.79% | -45.93% | 75.57% | -42.82% | 4.01% | -22.91% | 4.76% | 25.00% | -23.82% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.70% | 0.56% | 1.04% | 3.61% | 2.04% | 4.17% | 3.28% | 4.20% | 3.47% | 4.04% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 23,108.81 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 1,441.79 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 21,667.02 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 4,621.76 | 2,888.60 | 1,733.16 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 21,667.02 | 21,667.02 | 21,667.02 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -4,621.76 | -2,888.60 | -1,733.16 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 17,045.26 | 18,778.42 | 19,933.86 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 348.39 | 348.39 | 348.39 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 48.93 | 53.90 | 57.22 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 4.14 | 4.14 | 4.14 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 48.93 | 53.90 | 57.22 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 53.06 | 58.04 | 61.36 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 10.65% | 10.65% | 10.65% |
| Growth Rate | -16.13% | -15.13% | -14.13% |
| Fair Value | $166.20 | $191.08 | $212.63 |
| Upside / Downside | -62.40% | -56.77% | -51.89% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 23,108.81 | 19,612.57 | 16,645.29 | 14,126.95 | 11,989.61 | 10,175.65 | 10,480.92 |
| Payout Ratio | 6.24% | 22.99% | 39.74% | 56.50% | 73.25% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 1,441.79 | 4,509.18 | 6,615.42 | 7,981.11 | 8,782.13 | 9,158.08 | 9,694.85 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 10.65% | 10.65% | 10.65% |
| Growth Rate | -16.13% | -15.13% | -14.13% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 4,027.19 | 4,075.20 | 4,123.22 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 5,276.73 | 5,403.31 | 5,531.39 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 5,685.58 | 5,891.38 | 6,102.09 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 5,587.46 | 5,858.75 | 6,139.79 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 5,203.83 | 5,521.55 | 5,854.60 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 72,017.29 | 76,414.26 | 81,023.42 |
| Equity Value (M) | 97,798.08 | 103,164.45 | 108,774.51 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 348.39 | 348.39 | 348.39 |
| Fair Value | $280.72 | $296.12 | $312.22 |
| Upside / Downside | -36.49% | -33.00% | -29.36% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| THFF | First Financial Corporation | 3.32% | $1.98 | 31.67% |
| IRDM | Iridium Communications Inc. | 3.31% | $0.59 | 49.66% |
| PDCO | Patterson Companies, Inc. | 3.31% | $1.04 | 66.64% |
| 0HRZ.L | Coterra Energy Inc. | 3.30% | $0.88 | 40.64% |
| ACI | Albertsons Companies, Inc. | 3.30% | $0.57 | 33.33% |
| KDP | Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. | 3.30% | $0.92 | 78.89% |
| SPB | Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc. | 3.30% | $1.98 | 48.25% |
| 0IUX.L | Genuine Parts Company | 3.29% | $4.05 | 69.77% |
| BG | Bunge Global S.A. | 3.29% | $3.05 | 31.37% |
| HDGCX | The Hartford Dividend and Growth Fund Class C | 3.29% | $1.08 | 20.58% |
| PSBD | Palmer Square Capital BDC Inc. | 3.29% | $0.40 | 90.32% |
| LIEN | Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc. | 3.28% | $0.34 | 23.50% |
| REXR | Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc. | 3.28% | $1.28 | 90.14% |
| CVCY | Central Valley Community Bancorp | 3.27% | $0.58 | 32.80% |
| F-PD | Ford Motor Company 6.500% Notes | 3.27% | $0.74 | 63.45% |
| FSBW | FS Bancorp, Inc. | 3.27% | $1.33 | 31.78% |
| TRNO | Terreno Realty Corporation | 3.27% | $1.93 | 62.02% |
| 0I1P.L | Comerica Incorporated | 3.26% | $2.82 | 52.30% |
| ALEX | Alexander & Baldwin, Inc. | 3.26% | $0.67 | 66.95% |
| BRX | Brixmor Property Group Inc. | 3.26% | $0.85 | 78.30% |
| AGM-PC | Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation | 3.24% | $7.85 | 39.89% |
| HTO | H2O America | 3.24% | $1.60 | 52.08% |
| WEC | WEC Energy Group, Inc. | 3.24% | $3.45 | 66.21% |
| XOM | Exxon Mobil Corporation | 3.24% | $3.98 | 57.54% |
| SCL | Stepan Company | 3.22% | $1.52 | 76.82% |
| HBT | HBT Financial, Inc. | 3.21% | $0.83 | 33.20% |
| KALU | Kaiser Aluminum Corporation | 3.21% | $3.86 | 70.13% |
| SMP | Standard Motor Products, Inc. | 3.20% | $1.18 | 38.74% |
| 0QZA.L | ConocoPhillips | 3.19% | $3.09 | 43.65% |
| PAG | Penske Automotive Group, Inc. | 3.18% | $5.04 | 35.22% |
| CRBG | Corebridge Financial, Inc. | 3.17% | $0.96 | 52.57% |
| ED | Consolidated Edison, Inc. | 3.17% | $3.17 | 56.36% |
| LARK | Landmark Bancorp, Inc. | 3.17% | $0.82 | 38.75% |
| NBPU.L | NB Private Equity Partners Limited | 3.17% | $0.67 | 70.20% |
| PFBC | Preferred Bank | 3.16% | $3.03 | 29.67% |
| HNI | HNI Corporation | 3.15% | $1.34 | 44.63% |
| RBB | RBB Bancorp | 3.15% | $0.64 | 43.45% |
| FG | F&G Annuities & Life, Inc. | 3.14% | $0.94 | 28.23% |
| NBHC | National Bank Holdings Corporation | 3.14% | $1.19 | 37.27% |
| 0KZA.L | SM Energy Company | 3.13% | $0.60 | 9.44% |
| CBU | Community Bank System, Inc. | 3.13% | $1.82 | 46.85% |
| DTE | DTE Energy Company | 3.13% | $4.08 | 87.19% |
| RNST | Renasant Corporation | 3.13% | $1.11 | 48.14% |
| BSRR | Sierra Bancorp | 3.11% | $1.01 | 34.68% |
| FCF | First Commonwealth Financial Corporation | 3.11% | $0.52 | 38.19% |
| PNC | The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. | 3.11% | $6.57 | 39.89% |
| PRK | Park National Corporation | 3.11% | $4.80 | 44.20% |
| GEF | Greif, Inc. | 3.10% | $2.12 | 12.04% |
| 0QAH.L | Merck & Co., Inc. | 3.09% | $3.25 | 42.60% |
| BANR | Banner Corporation | 3.09% | $1.93 | 35.15% |