Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Airtel Africa Plc (AAF.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.91 - $4.47$2.81
Multi-Stage$1.57 - $1.71$1.64
Blended Fair Value$2.22
Current Price$2.48
Upside-10.33%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202520242023202220212020201920182017
DPS15.17%0.00%0.060.060.050.050.050.030.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--8.02%8.72%15.38%0.00%49.56%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.51%3.84%3.86%2.78%4.29%3.96%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)339.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)229.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)110.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)67.8042.3825.43
Cash Retained (M)110.00110.00110.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-67.80-42.38-25.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)42.2067.6384.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,684.283,684.283,684.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.080.09
WACC / Discount Rate8.86%8.86%8.86%
Growth Rate4.82%5.82%6.82%
Fair Value$1.91$2.81$4.47
Upside / Downside-22.89%13.19%80.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)339.00358.75379.64401.76425.16449.92463.42
Payout Ratio67.55%72.04%76.53%81.02%85.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)229.00258.45290.54325.50363.55404.93428.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.86%8.86%8.86%
Growth Rate4.82%5.82%6.82%
Year 1 PV (M)235.17237.41239.65
Year 2 PV (M)240.56245.18249.83
Year 3 PV (M)245.24252.32259.54
Year 4 PV (M)249.23258.88268.80
Year 5 PV (M)252.59264.87277.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,563.264,785.125,015.52
Equity Value (M)5,786.066,043.786,310.98
Shares Outstanding (M)3,684.283,684.283,684.28
Fair Value$1.57$1.64$1.71
Upside / Downside-36.67%-33.85%-30.93%

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