Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

ArcSoft Corporation Limited (688088.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.50 - $6.68$5.54
Multi-Stage$8.47 - $9.31$8.88
Blended Fair Value$7.21
Current Price$59.30
Upside-87.84%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.360.120.200.260.100.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--195.68%-37.50%-23.61%158.70%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.78%0.37%0.55%0.89%0.20%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)228.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)100.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)128.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)45.7328.5817.15
Cash Retained (M)128.45128.45128.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-45.73-28.58-17.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)82.7299.87111.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)409.04409.04409.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.240.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.240.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.490.52
WACC / Discount Rate7.74%7.74%7.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.50$5.54$6.68
Upside / Downside-92.42%-90.66%-88.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)228.63226.35224.08221.84219.62217.43223.95
Payout Ratio43.82%53.05%62.29%71.53%80.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)100.18120.09139.58158.68177.38195.69207.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.74%7.74%7.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)110.33111.46112.58
Year 2 PV (M)117.82120.24122.68
Year 3 PV (M)123.06126.87130.75
Year 4 PV (M)126.38131.62137.02
Year 5 PV (M)128.10134.77141.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,858.773,007.633,162.63
Equity Value (M)3,464.473,632.593,807.39
Shares Outstanding (M)409.04409.04409.04
Fair Value$8.47$8.88$9.31
Upside / Downside-85.72%-85.02%-84.30%

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