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Luk Fook Holdings (International) Limited (0590.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Luxury GoodsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$55.47 - $92.01$71.63
Multi-Stage$106.65 - $117.30$111.87
Blended Fair Value$91.75
Current Price$15.30
Upside499.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS1.59%-0.02%1.191.271.101.551.001.101.101.101.101.10
YoY Growth---6.30%15.45%-29.03%55.00%-9.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%-0.34%-7.41%
Dividend Yield--7.78%5.84%4.38%8.12%4.67%7.04%4.07%3.86%4.45%6.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,828.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)959.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,868.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)565.78353.61212.17
Cash Retained (M)1,868.991,868.991,868.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-565.78-353.61-212.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,303.211,515.381,656.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)587.11587.11587.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.222.582.82
LTM Dividend per Share1.641.641.64
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.222.582.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.854.224.46
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate-0.41%0.59%1.59%
Fair Value$55.47$71.63$92.01
Upside / Downside262.54%368.15%501.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,828.912,845.472,862.122,878.882,895.722,912.673,000.05
Payout Ratio33.93%45.15%56.36%67.57%78.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)959.921,284.621,613.081,945.342,281.442,621.412,775.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate-0.41%0.59%1.59%
Year 1 PV (M)1,194.151,206.151,218.14
Year 2 PV (M)1,393.891,422.031,450.45
Year 3 PV (M)1,562.641,610.181,658.69
Year 4 PV (M)1,703.561,773.031,844.59
Year 5 PV (M)1,819.581,912.792,009.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)54,942.8057,757.3560,686.07
Equity Value (M)62,616.6365,681.5268,867.71
Shares Outstanding (M)587.11587.11587.11
Fair Value$106.65$111.87$117.30
Upside / Downside597.08%631.20%666.67%

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