Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$75.92 - $161.43$107.88
Multi-Stage$54.13 - $59.19$56.61
Blended Fair Value$82.25
Current Price$191.49
Upside-57.05%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS16.42%16.19%0.030.020.020.020.020.020.020.010.010.01
YoY Growth--111.14%-0.75%-0.25%1.01%1.28%5.12%8.80%30.65%22.54%14.52%
Dividend Yield--0.03%0.02%0.06%0.08%0.11%0.21%0.34%0.25%0.40%0.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)99,198.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)977.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)98,221.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19,839.6012,399.757,439.85
Cash Retained (M)98,221.0098,221.0098,221.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-19,839.60-12,399.75-7,439.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)78,381.4085,821.2590,781.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)24,583.0024,583.0024,583.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.193.493.69
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.193.493.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.233.533.73
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$75.92$107.88$161.43
Upside / Downside-60.35%-43.66%-15.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)99,198.00105,645.87112,512.85119,826.19127,614.89135,909.86139,987.15
Payout Ratio0.98%18.79%36.59%54.39%72.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)977.0019,848.6641,169.5165,178.2192,134.10122,318.87129,488.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)17,877.1418,046.5918,216.04
Year 2 PV (M)33,397.1334,033.2534,675.37
Year 3 PV (M)47,621.4548,988.4950,381.44
Year 4 PV (M)60,629.9662,961.6265,359.89
Year 5 PV (M)72,498.1875,999.8779,635.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,098,639.541,151,704.241,206,799.85
Equity Value (M)1,330,663.401,391,734.061,455,068.18
Shares Outstanding (M)24,583.0024,583.0024,583.00
Fair Value$54.13$56.61$59.19
Upside / Downside-71.73%-70.44%-69.09%

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