Definitive Analysis
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Wingstop Inc. (WING)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$143.80 - $381.45$219.88
Multi-Stage$97.74 - $106.83$102.20
Blended Fair Value$161.04
Current Price$247.44
Upside-34.92%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.71%0.00%1.020.884.970.705.760.416.710.142.931.69
YoY Growth--15.91%-82.37%612.74%-87.90%1,294.92%-93.84%4,586.41%-95.11%73.48%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.45%0.24%2.71%0.64%4.60%0.53%8.83%0.30%10.36%7.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)174.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)142.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.8521.7813.07
Cash Retained (M)142.35142.35142.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.85-21.78-13.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)107.50120.57129.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)28.4328.4328.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.784.244.55
LTM Dividend per Share1.121.121.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.784.244.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.905.365.67
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$143.80$219.88$381.45
Upside / Downside-41.89%-11.14%54.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)174.26185.59197.65210.50224.18238.75245.91
Payout Ratio18.31%32.65%46.99%61.32%75.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31.9160.5992.87129.08169.62214.87227.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)55.0155.5456.06
Year 2 PV (M)76.5678.0279.50
Year 3 PV (M)96.6399.41102.23
Year 4 PV (M)115.30119.73124.29
Year 5 PV (M)132.62139.03145.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,302.322,413.522,528.98
Equity Value (M)2,778.452,905.243,036.73
Shares Outstanding (M)28.4328.4328.43
Fair Value$97.74$102.20$106.83
Upside / Downside-60.50%-58.70%-56.83%

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