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Caisse Régionale de Crédit Agricole Mutuel de Normandie-Seine Société coopérative (CCN.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$233.64 - $354.07$290.29
Multi-Stage$474.07 - $521.98$497.55
Blended Fair Value$393.92
Current Price$99.20
Upside297.10%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS34.15%0.09%2.422.300.460.970.320.561.262.562.462.47
YoY Growth--4.91%396.23%-52.01%198.93%-41.83%-56.01%-50.62%4.00%-0.45%3.33%
Dividend Yield--2.84%2.95%0.68%1.05%0.29%0.35%0.97%2.12%2.40%2.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)162.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)42.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)120.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)32.5820.3612.22
Cash Retained (M)120.48120.48120.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-32.58-20.36-12.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)87.90100.12108.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6.056.056.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share14.5216.5417.88
LTM Dividend per Share7.017.017.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share14.5216.5417.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend21.5323.5524.89
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$233.64$290.29$354.07
Upside / Downside135.52%192.63%256.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)162.92161.29159.67158.08156.50154.93159.58
Payout Ratio26.05%38.84%51.63%64.42%77.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)42.4362.6482.44101.83120.83139.44147.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)57.9358.5259.12
Year 2 PV (M)70.5171.9673.42
Year 3 PV (M)80.5683.0585.59
Year 4 PV (M)88.4192.0795.85
Year 5 PV (M)94.3699.27104.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,477.942,606.972,741.32
Equity Value (M)2,869.713,011.853,159.69
Shares Outstanding (M)6.056.056.05
Fair Value$474.07$497.55$521.98
Upside / Downside377.90%401.57%426.19%

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