Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co., Ltd. (601616.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Technology DistributorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.20 - $0.31$0.25
Multi-Stage$0.27 - $0.30$0.29
Blended Fair Value$0.27
Current Price$4.06
Upside-93.35%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.98%2.55%0.070.070.000.100.060.040.020.000.060.06
YoY Growth---1.50%2,130.05%-96.87%74.62%33.89%102.86%0.00%-100.00%-0.04%-1.53%
Dividend Yield--1.62%2.34%0.09%3.07%1.74%1.54%0.47%0.00%0.94%0.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)13.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.822.391.43
Cash Retained (M)13.6213.6213.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.82-2.39-1.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)9.8011.2312.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)849.65849.65849.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.020.020.02
WACC / Discount Rate9.44%9.44%9.44%
Growth Rate0.55%1.55%2.55%
Fair Value$0.20$0.25$0.31
Upside / Downside-94.99%-93.76%-92.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19.1219.4119.7120.0220.3320.6421.26
Payout Ratio28.77%41.01%53.26%65.51%77.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.507.9610.5013.1115.8118.5819.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.44%9.44%9.44%
Growth Rate0.55%1.55%2.55%
Year 1 PV (M)7.207.287.35
Year 2 PV (M)8.608.778.94
Year 3 PV (M)9.7110.0110.30
Year 4 PV (M)10.5911.0211.46
Year 5 PV (M)11.2611.8412.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)185.25194.64204.42
Equity Value (M)232.61243.55254.90
Shares Outstanding (M)849.65849.65849.65
Fair Value$0.27$0.29$0.30
Upside / Downside-93.26%-92.94%-92.61%

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