Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shanghai Dragon Corporation (600630.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.38 - $0.53$0.45
Multi-Stage$3.51 - $3.91$3.71
Blended Fair Value$2.08
Current Price$9.18
Upside-77.32%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-10.54%0.64%0.030.030.050.050.060.060.130.030.090.06
YoY Growth--14.41%-39.64%7.52%-26.29%4.70%-53.00%303.08%-63.81%44.41%87.92%
Dividend Yield--0.39%0.30%0.92%0.80%1.18%0.79%1.32%0.31%0.60%0.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)31.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)25.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.333.952.37
Cash Retained (M)25.6225.6225.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.33-3.95-2.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)19.3021.6723.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)445.39445.39445.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.060.060.07
WACC / Discount Rate3.30%3.30%3.30%
Growth Rate-10.12%-9.12%-8.12%
Fair Value$0.38$0.45$0.53
Upside / Downside-95.85%-95.05%-94.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)31.6328.7426.1223.7421.5819.6120.20
Payout Ratio18.99%33.19%47.39%61.60%75.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.019.5412.3814.6216.3617.6518.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate3.30%3.30%3.30%
Growth Rate-10.12%-9.12%-8.12%
Year 1 PV (M)9.139.249.34
Year 2 PV (M)11.3511.6011.86
Year 3 PV (M)12.8313.2713.71
Year 4 PV (M)13.7414.3615.01
Year 5 PV (M)14.2015.0115.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,502.991,588.481,677.81
Equity Value (M)1,564.241,651.951,743.57
Shares Outstanding (M)445.39445.39445.39
Fair Value$3.51$3.71$3.91
Upside / Downside-61.74%-59.60%-57.36%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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