Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shenzhen AV-Display Co., Ltd. (300939.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.93 - $15.72$11.81
Multi-Stage$15.16 - $16.64$15.89
Blended Fair Value$13.85
Current Price$34.39
Upside-59.73%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS5.73%0.00%0.390.400.400.330.000.300.070.100.020.00
YoY Growth---0.92%0.00%20.00%7,579.39%-98.55%339.72%-32.74%546.61%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.32%1.24%1.18%1.09%0.01%0.72%0.16%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)81.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)33.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.2510.156.09
Cash Retained (M)33.5433.5433.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.25-10.15-6.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)17.2923.3927.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)121.01121.01121.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.190.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.390.390.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.190.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.590.62
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate0.62%1.62%2.62%
Fair Value$8.93$11.81$15.72
Upside / Downside-74.04%-65.65%-54.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)81.2382.5483.8885.2586.6388.0390.68
Payout Ratio58.71%64.97%71.23%77.48%83.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47.6953.6359.7566.0572.5479.2383.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate0.62%1.62%2.62%
Year 1 PV (M)49.7850.2750.77
Year 2 PV (M)51.4752.5053.54
Year 3 PV (M)52.8254.4156.03
Year 4 PV (M)53.8556.0258.26
Year 5 PV (M)54.5957.3660.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,572.261,651.951,734.84
Equity Value (M)1,834.761,922.512,013.68
Shares Outstanding (M)121.01121.01121.01
Fair Value$15.16$15.89$16.64
Upside / Downside-55.91%-53.80%-51.61%

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