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Poly Property Group Co., Limited (0119.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.66 - $2.26$1.96
Multi-Stage$5.50 - $6.10$5.79
Blended Fair Value$3.88
Current Price$1.51
Upside156.77%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.82%-9.00%0.080.050.080.090.200.120.130.000.020.08
YoY Growth--74.20%-42.11%-13.19%-52.78%69.92%-8.89%0.00%-100.00%-69.66%-61.65%
Dividend Yield--5.38%3.39%5.30%4.61%8.82%3.65%5.28%0.00%0.96%3.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,301.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)494.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)806.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)260.27162.6797.60
Cash Retained (M)806.46806.46806.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-260.27-162.67-97.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)546.20643.80708.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,821.183,821.183,821.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.170.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.170.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate-8.82%-7.82%-6.82%
Fair Value$1.66$1.96$2.26
Upside / Downside9.70%29.97%49.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,301.331,199.571,105.761,019.29939.59866.11892.09
Payout Ratio38.03%48.42%58.82%69.21%79.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)494.87580.86650.37705.46747.96779.50825.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate-8.82%-7.82%-6.82%
Year 1 PV (M)541.14547.07553.01
Year 2 PV (M)564.46576.91589.49
Year 3 PV (M)570.40589.38608.77
Year 4 PV (M)563.41588.53614.49
Year 5 PV (M)547.01577.67609.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,230.8519,252.7320,319.94
Equity Value (M)21,017.2622,132.2923,295.38
Shares Outstanding (M)3,821.183,821.183,821.18
Fair Value$5.50$5.79$6.10
Upside / Downside264.25%283.58%303.73%

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