Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Double Medical Technology Inc. (002901.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$52.14 - $263.33$107.92
Multi-Stage$28.89 - $31.58$30.21
Blended Fair Value$69.06
Current Price$56.00
Upside23.33%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-10.61%38.02%0.290.020.510.790.590.510.390.230.140.18
YoY Growth--1,151.91%-95.50%-35.40%34.30%16.67%29.26%66.60%63.53%-20.11%1,461.68%
Dividend Yield--0.84%0.07%1.41%1.86%1.18%0.75%1.14%0.63%0.86%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)541.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)212.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)328.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)108.3167.7040.62
Cash Retained (M)328.97328.97328.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-108.31-67.70-40.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)220.66261.28288.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)409.01409.01409.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.540.640.70
LTM Dividend per Share0.520.520.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.540.640.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.061.161.22
WACC / Discount Rate7.64%7.64%7.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$52.14$107.92$263.33
Upside / Downside-6.89%92.71%370.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)541.57576.78614.27654.19696.72742.00764.26
Payout Ratio39.26%49.41%59.55%69.70%79.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)212.60284.96365.82455.99556.34667.80706.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.64%7.64%7.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)262.24264.72267.21
Year 2 PV (M)309.81315.71321.67
Year 3 PV (M)355.39365.59375.98
Year 4 PV (M)399.02414.37430.15
Year 5 PV (M)440.78462.07484.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,049.1510,534.5211,038.48
Equity Value (M)11,816.3912,356.9912,917.67
Shares Outstanding (M)409.01409.01409.01
Fair Value$28.89$30.21$31.58
Upside / Downside-48.41%-46.05%-43.60%

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