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Sub Sri Thai Real Estate Investment Trust (SSTRT.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - IndustrialSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$38.87 - $101.68$95.29
Multi-Stage$14.92 - $16.30$15.60
Blended Fair Value$55.44
Current Price$4.40
Upside1,160.09%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.03%0.00%0.400.400.330.420.290.220.120.000.290.26
YoY Growth--0.02%22.35%-22.38%44.71%34.20%82.35%0.00%-100.00%11.75%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.44%7.92%6.00%7.20%5.34%4.39%1.95%0.00%3.03%2.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)97.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)76.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)21.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.5512.227.33
Cash Retained (M)21.2721.2721.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.55-12.22-7.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.729.0513.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)191.15191.15191.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.050.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.050.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.450.47
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$38.87$95.29$101.68
Upside / Downside783.50%2,065.69%2,210.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)97.73104.08110.85118.06125.73133.90137.92
Payout Ratio78.24%80.59%82.94%85.29%87.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)76.4683.8891.94100.69110.20120.51127.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)77.9478.6879.42
Year 2 PV (M)79.3880.8982.42
Year 3 PV (M)80.7883.1085.46
Year 4 PV (M)82.1585.3188.56
Year 5 PV (M)83.4787.5191.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,447.782,566.012,688.76
Equity Value (M)2,851.502,981.493,116.31
Shares Outstanding (M)191.15191.15191.15
Fair Value$14.92$15.60$16.30
Upside / Downside239.04%254.49%270.52%

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