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Spire Inc. (SR-PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$103.02 - $256.99$154.52
Multi-Stage$80.11 - $87.19$83.59
Blended Fair Value$119.05
Current Price$81.52
Upside46.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.32%8.72%3.112.852.572.422.272.182.031.851.641.45
YoY Growth--9.04%10.88%6.20%6.53%4.06%7.56%9.48%12.99%12.91%7.85%
Dividend Yield--3.81%4.20%4.12%3.52%3.48%3.41%2.44%2.50%2.18%2.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)271.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)267.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)3.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)54.3433.9620.38
Cash Retained (M)3.803.803.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-54.34-33.96-20.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)-50.54-30.16-16.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)58.6358.6358.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.86-0.51-0.28
LTM Dividend per Share4.574.574.57
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.86-0.51-0.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.714.064.29
WACC / Discount Rate9.11%9.11%9.11%
Growth Rate5.32%6.32%7.32%
Fair Value$103.02$154.52$256.99
Upside / Downside26.38%89.55%215.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)271.70288.86307.11326.51347.13369.06380.13
Payout Ratio98.60%96.88%95.16%93.44%91.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)267.90279.85292.25305.09318.39332.16351.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.11%9.11%9.11%
Growth Rate5.32%6.32%7.32%
Year 1 PV (M)254.08256.49258.91
Year 2 PV (M)240.90245.50250.14
Year 3 PV (M)228.33234.89241.59
Year 4 PV (M)216.34224.67233.25
Year 5 PV (M)204.91214.82225.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,551.943,723.803,902.26
Equity Value (M)4,696.504,900.195,111.25
Shares Outstanding (M)58.6358.6358.63
Fair Value$80.11$83.59$87.19
Upside / Downside-1.73%2.53%6.95%

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