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PriceSmart, Inc. (PSMT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Discount StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$90.17 - $189.23$127.53
Multi-Stage$77.19 - $84.32$80.69
Blended Fair Value$104.11
Current Price$107.26
Upside-2.94%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS12.47%6.25%1.292.200.950.880.730.720.720.710.710.71
YoY Growth---41.46%131.82%7.46%20.79%2.14%-0.59%1.95%-0.21%0.05%0.70%
Dividend Yield--1.20%2.45%1.41%1.24%1.02%0.88%0.96%1.06%0.83%0.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)147.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)58.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)89.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.5818.4911.09
Cash Retained (M)89.7889.7889.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.58-18.49-11.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)60.2071.2978.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)30.0630.0630.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.002.372.62
LTM Dividend per Share1.931.931.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.002.372.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.944.304.55
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate4.52%5.52%6.52%
Fair Value$90.17$127.53$189.23
Upside / Downside-15.93%18.90%76.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)147.89156.05164.66173.75183.34193.45199.26
Payout Ratio39.29%49.43%59.58%69.72%79.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)58.1177.1498.10121.13146.41174.11184.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate4.52%5.52%6.52%
Year 1 PV (M)70.0570.7271.39
Year 2 PV (M)80.8982.4584.02
Year 3 PV (M)90.7093.3396.01
Year 4 PV (M)99.55103.42107.39
Year 5 PV (M)107.50112.74118.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,871.751,963.032,057.82
Equity Value (M)2,320.452,425.682,534.82
Shares Outstanding (M)30.0630.0630.06
Fair Value$77.19$80.69$84.32
Upside / Downside-28.04%-24.78%-21.39%

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