Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Siam Makro Public Company Limited (MAKRO.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$122.43 - $144.24$135.17
Multi-Stage$480.68 - $527.81$503.80
Blended Fair Value$319.49
Current Price$36.00
Upside787.47%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS4.37%7.44%0.490.450.430.430.430.400.360.370.290.39
YoY Growth--10.21%4.17%0.00%0.00%7.87%9.88%-1.22%26.15%-24.64%60.47%
Dividend Yield--1.26%1.13%1.13%1.31%1.22%0.88%1.07%1.08%0.82%1.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,755.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,904.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,850.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,551.03969.40581.64
Cash Retained (M)5,850.715,850.715,850.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,551.03-969.40-581.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,299.674,881.315,269.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10,692.5910,692.5910,692.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.460.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.460.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.580.630.67
WACC / Discount Rate-28.13%-28.13%-28.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$122.43$135.17$144.24
Upside / Downside240.08%275.49%300.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,755.178,259.258,796.109,367.859,976.7610,625.2510,944.01
Payout Ratio24.56%37.65%50.73%63.82%76.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,904.463,109.264,462.655,978.837,673.279,562.7210,123.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-28.13%-28.13%-28.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,285.594,326.224,366.84
Year 2 PV (M)8,478.128,639.618,802.62
Year 3 PV (M)15,655.8716,105.2916,563.24
Year 4 PV (M)27,694.5828,759.6429,855.12
Year 5 PV (M)47,571.7849,869.5252,255.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,036,001.835,279,242.605,531,792.77
Equity Value (M)5,139,687.785,386,942.885,643,635.78
Shares Outstanding (M)10,692.5910,692.5910,692.59
Fair Value$480.68$503.80$527.81
Upside / Downside1,235.22%1,299.45%1,366.13%

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