Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Greggs plc (GRG.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$103.67 - $547.55$206.65
Multi-Stage$59.18 - $64.67$61.87
Blended Fair Value$134.26
Current Price$19.54
Upside587.13%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.72%12.94%0.650.590.960.150.000.700.320.310.300.43
YoY Growth--8.72%-38.27%543.79%0.00%-100.00%117.92%2.79%4.04%-29.23%123.37%
Dividend Yield--2.32%2.27%4.10%0.45%0.00%3.06%2.55%2.25%3.11%3.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)282.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)133.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)148.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)56.4235.2621.16
Cash Retained (M)148.90148.90148.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-56.42-35.26-21.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)92.48113.64127.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)102.46102.46102.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.901.111.25
LTM Dividend per Share1.301.301.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.901.111.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.202.412.55
WACC / Discount Rate7.74%7.74%7.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$103.67$206.65$547.55
Upside / Downside430.54%957.60%2,702.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)282.10300.44319.96340.76362.91386.50398.10
Payout Ratio47.22%55.77%64.33%72.89%81.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)133.20167.56205.83248.37295.57347.85368.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.74%7.74%7.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)154.06155.52156.99
Year 2 PV (M)174.00177.32180.66
Year 3 PV (M)193.05198.59204.23
Year 4 PV (M)211.22219.34227.70
Year 5 PV (M)228.56239.60251.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,102.815,349.285,605.18
Equity Value (M)6,063.706,339.656,625.82
Shares Outstanding (M)102.46102.46102.46
Fair Value$59.18$61.87$64.67
Upside / Downside202.87%216.65%230.95%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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