Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PJSC Mining and Metallurgical Company Norilsk Nickel (GMKN.ME)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.85 - $1.12$0.99
Multi-Stage$1.61 - $1.77$1.69
Blended Fair Value$1.34
Current Price$1.42
Upside-5.49%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-18.70%-7.65%0.100.000.410.140.270.270.220.190.080.19
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%181.89%-47.23%-0.02%23.66%13.40%141.15%-56.91%-12.86%
Dividend Yield--9.22%0.00%19.58%4.73%8.54%8.85%11.79%10.34%4.88%14.73%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,569.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,498.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,071.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)713.80446.13267.68
Cash Retained (M)2,071.002,071.002,071.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-713.80-446.13-267.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,357.201,624.881,803.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15,286.3415,286.3415,286.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.200.22
WACC / Discount Rate10.12%10.12%10.12%
Growth Rate-9.65%-8.65%-7.65%
Fair Value$0.85$0.99$1.12
Upside / Downside-39.91%-30.01%-20.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,569.003,260.202,978.112,720.432,485.052,270.032,338.13
Payout Ratio41.97%51.58%61.18%70.79%80.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,498.001,681.541,822.111,925.771,997.842,043.032,162.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.12%10.12%10.12%
Growth Rate-9.65%-8.65%-7.65%
Year 1 PV (M)1,510.241,526.961,543.67
Year 2 PV (M)1,469.771,502.491,535.57
Year 3 PV (M)1,395.141,441.981,489.85
Year 4 PV (M)1,299.911,358.421,418.89
Year 5 PV (M)1,193.891,261.441,332.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,740.9618,744.7619,793.48
Equity Value (M)24,609.9025,836.0327,113.47
Shares Outstanding (M)15,286.3415,286.3415,286.34
Fair Value$1.61$1.69$1.77
Upside / Downside13.38%19.02%24.91%

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