Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Hunan Meihu Intelligent Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (603319.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$80.30 - $94.61$88.66
Multi-Stage$54.58 - $59.91$57.20
Blended Fair Value$72.93
Current Price$44.52
Upside63.81%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS28.91%17.34%0.330.160.180.160.090.090.120.040.030.07
YoY Growth--102.41%-9.73%12.59%76.58%-2.01%-18.78%200.00%33.33%-60.23%7.61%
Dividend Yield--1.45%1.31%1.61%1.61%0.73%1.24%1.53%0.42%0.19%1.59%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)150.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)129.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)30.0918.8011.28
Cash Retained (M)129.22129.22129.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-30.09-18.80-11.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)99.13110.42117.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)316.21316.21316.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.350.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.350.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.380.420.44
WACC / Discount Rate2.25%2.25%2.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$80.30$88.66$94.61
Upside / Downside80.37%99.15%112.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)150.43160.20170.62181.71193.52206.10212.28
Payout Ratio14.10%29.28%44.46%59.64%74.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21.2146.9175.86108.37144.79185.49196.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.25%2.25%2.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)45.4445.8746.30
Year 2 PV (M)71.2072.5573.92
Year 3 PV (M)98.54101.37104.25
Year 4 PV (M)127.55132.45137.50
Year 5 PV (M)158.30165.95173.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,758.0817,567.5018,407.90
Equity Value (M)17,259.1118,085.6918,943.76
Shares Outstanding (M)316.21316.21316.21
Fair Value$54.58$57.20$59.91
Upside / Downside22.60%28.47%34.57%

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