Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Weaver Network Technology Co., Ltd. (603039.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.87 - $47.74$28.43
Multi-Stage$12.99 - $14.20$13.59
Blended Fair Value$21.01
Current Price$57.25
Upside-63.31%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS30.46%0.00%0.220.150.150.130.090.060.040.040.000.00
YoY Growth--50.99%-0.21%18.29%43.23%48.04%47.87%3.90%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.33%0.37%0.20%0.24%0.12%0.13%0.09%0.13%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)216.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)38.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)178.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)43.3527.0916.25
Cash Retained (M)178.02178.02178.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-43.35-27.09-16.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)134.67150.93161.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)259.08259.08259.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.520.580.62
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.520.580.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.670.730.77
WACC / Discount Rate9.24%9.24%9.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$18.87$28.43$47.74
Upside / Downside-67.05%-50.35%-16.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)216.73230.82245.82261.80278.81296.94305.85
Payout Ratio17.86%32.29%46.72%61.14%75.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)38.7174.53114.84160.07210.71267.24282.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.24%9.24%9.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)67.5868.2268.86
Year 2 PV (M)94.4396.2398.04
Year 3 PV (M)119.36122.79126.28
Year 4 PV (M)142.47147.95153.58
Year 5 PV (M)163.86171.77179.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,778.762,912.983,052.33
Equity Value (M)3,366.463,519.943,679.09
Shares Outstanding (M)259.08259.08259.08
Fair Value$12.99$13.59$14.20
Upside / Downside-77.30%-76.27%-75.20%

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