Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Zhejiang JW Precision Machinery Co.,Ltd (300984.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.78 - $16.07$10.94
Multi-Stage$16.22 - $17.85$17.02
Blended Fair Value$13.98
Current Price$70.20
Upside-80.09%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS5.48%0.00%0.180.190.460.290.230.130.070.070.000.00
YoY Growth---6.64%-59.26%61.34%24.05%71.55%102.14%-10.26%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.36%1.16%2.85%1.21%0.91%0.53%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)42.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)24.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.425.263.16
Cash Retained (M)24.0324.0324.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.42-5.26-3.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)15.6018.7620.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)93.6593.6593.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.200.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.200.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.390.42
WACC / Discount Rate5.30%5.30%5.30%
Growth Rate0.65%1.65%2.65%
Fair Value$7.78$10.94$16.07
Upside / Downside-88.92%-84.42%-77.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)42.1242.8143.5244.2344.9645.7047.07
Payout Ratio42.96%52.37%61.77%71.18%80.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18.0922.4226.8831.4936.2441.1343.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.30%5.30%5.30%
Growth Rate0.65%1.65%2.65%
Year 1 PV (M)21.0821.2921.50
Year 2 PV (M)23.7724.2424.72
Year 3 PV (M)26.1826.9727.77
Year 4 PV (M)28.3329.4730.65
Year 5 PV (M)30.2331.7733.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,389.611,460.031,533.28
Equity Value (M)1,519.201,593.771,671.28
Shares Outstanding (M)93.6593.6593.65
Fair Value$16.22$17.02$17.85
Upside / Downside-76.89%-75.76%-74.58%

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